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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/25 11:35

   Trade Lightly Mixed at Midday

   Trade has faded back to mixed action at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 35 lower. The dollar 
index is 3 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with 
crude 0.25 higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer 
with gold 16.40 higher.


   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with firmness following the 
conditions report Monday afternoon. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer 
and drier into July which will be needed to boost growth. Ethanol margins 
remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from the surge in crude 
values with the Iran tensions with flat ethanol to firmer futures to start the 
week. Weekly crop progress was 96% planted vs. 100% last year, and at the high 
end of expectations, emergence was 89% vs. 99% on average, and 56% was rated 
good to excellent, down 2 percentage points on the week, and 10% poor to very 
poor, which is the among the lowest on record for this week of the year. Corn 
basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July 
nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.46, with the 20-day at $4.34 below 
there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.61. 


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade unable to sustain gains 
after the crop progress report. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 15 to 
25 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal 
regaining the lead to start the week. World export demand remains slow, with 
the ral remaining near the upper end of the range but still cheap vs. the 
dollar. Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with days now 
getting shorter for soybean growth. The weekly crop progress showed 85% planted 
vs. 97% on average, just below expectations with 71% emerged vs. 91% on 
average, and 54% good to excellent and 10% poor to very poor for the initial 
condition report. The July chart support is the 200-day at $9.07 which we are 
moved back above Monday, then the recent high at $9.21, with further support 
the 100-day at $8.94.


   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher at with harvest for winter wheat 
expected to remain slow. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is flat to slightly 
tighter for Kansas City this a.m. The heavy rains from this weekend will keep 
harvest slow with a warmer week likely to get combines rolling in a bigger way 
towards the weekend. The dollar is below 96 on the index with the post Fed 
slide slowing this morning. Black Sea area weather remains mixed with world 
values soft and short term heat in place. Hard red wheat is working into feed 
rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may 
increase feeding on that front. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat at 61% 
good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor, down 3% with 94% headed vs. 99% 
on average, and harvest 15% complete vs. 34% on average. Spring wheat was 75% 
good to excellent, and 3% poor to poor, down 2 percentage points, and heading 
at 7% vs. 29% on average. On the July KC chart support is the 10-day and 20-day 
at $4.63-4.64 with resistance again the upper Bollinger Band at 4.84. 


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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