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Market Matters Blog           11/15 11:11
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher
As Harvest Drags On, Producers Reminded to Cool Stored Grain
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher
Corn Futures: A Look at Bullish, Bearish Influences
A Sunflower Surprise on the Horizon? 
Change to Hours of Service Comment Period Ends With Mixed Feelings
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Steady
Soybean Basis Climbs Out of Cellar
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Lower
DTN Weekly DDG Price Lower on Average 

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was $2 higher at $143 per ton 
for the week ended Nov. 14. 

   Prices were mixed, but the weakness in the cash corn price has been balanced 
once again by stronger basis values in some areas where corn harvest is slow or 
stalled. The onset of early, record cold temperatures also added to feed 
demand. 

   The Energy Information Administration data released Thursday morning showed 
ethanol inventory fell for the third time in four weeks and to the lowest level 
in over two years despite a seventh straight weekly gain in ethanol plant 
production.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Nov. 14 was at 106.56%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 47.18%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.30, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.38. The 
DDG/soymeal price ratio continues to remain above the three-year average.

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council noted: "The U.S. 
DDGS market is higher this week while international prices are slightly lower 
for spot shipments. Barge CIF (cost, insurance and freight paid by seller) NOLA 
(New Orleans)prices are $6 to $9 per metric ton (mt) higher while FOB (free on 
board means buyer pays costs of ocean freight, insurance, unloading, and 
transportation from originating port) NOLA DDGS are up $3 to $4/mt. U.S. rail 
rates are $4/mt higher on average with this week's winter storm complicating 
logistics." 

   USGC also noted that internationally, merchandisers report Indonesia and 
Vietnam remain active buyers with several shipments secured for December and 
January. "South Korean buyers have reportedly been looking for product but bids 
from that country are below firm asking prices. On average, 40-foot containers 
to Southeast Asia are down $1/mt for December shipment while deferred positions 
are steady."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION        CURRENT   CURRENT  CHANGE
COMPANY             STATE   11/14/2019   11/7/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri            Dry        $155        $153        $2
Wet                  $78       $77          $1
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject    Dry        $150        $150        $0
Wet                  $77       $77          $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois            Dry        $135        $135        $0
Indiana             Dry        $140        $140        $0
Iowa                Dry        $135        $135        $0
Michigan            Dry        $150        $150        $0
Minnesota           Dry        $135        $135        $0
North Dakota        Dry        $135        $135        $0
New York            Dry        $150        $150        $0
South Dakota        Dry        $125        $125        $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas              Dry        $150        $148        $2
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana             Dry        $150        $150        $0
Iowa                Dry        $137        $137        $0
Michigan            Dry        $135        $135        $0
Minnesota           Dry        $135        $135        $0
Missouri            Dry        $155        $155        $0
Ohio                Dry        $150        $150        $0
South Dakota        Dry        $145        $145        $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas              Dry        $150        $142        $8
Wet                  $55       $55          $0
Illinois            Dry        $153        $150        $3
Nebraska            Dry        $150        $142        $8
Wet                  $60       $45          $15
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois            Dry        $145        $140        $5
Indiana             Dry        $145        $140        $5
Iowa                Dry        $145        $135       $10
Michigan            Dry        $140        $145       -$5
Minnesota           Dry        $135        $135        $0
Nebraska            Dry        $150        $140       $10
New York            Dry        $165        $165        $0
North Dakota        Dry        $135        $135        $0
Ohio                Dry        $150        $145        $5
South Dakota        Dry        $135        $135        $0
Wisconsin           Dry        $135        $135        $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas
Indiana             Dry        $150        $135       $15
Iowa                Dry        $135        $145       -$10
Minnesota           Dry        $135        $140       -$5
Nebraska            Dry        $145        $135       $10
Ohio                Dry        $150        $145        $5
South Dakota        Dry        $140        $135        $5
California          Dry        $208        $205        $3
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California          Dry        $211        $211        $0
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average       $143      $141         $2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn  11/14/2019 $3.7575   $134.20
                    Soybean Meal  11/14/2019 $303.10
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $143.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:  11/14    11/7
                                        Corn 106.56%   105.21%
                                Soybean Meal  47.18%    46.13%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $5.30     $5.22
                                Soybean Meal   $6.38     $6.43
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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As Harvest Drags On, Producers Reminded to Cool Stored Grain

   Many Midwest farmers faced a late-planting season with the added headache of 
poor summer growing weather, excessive rainfall and in some states early 
snowfall stalling harvest. However, things got worse at harvest, which has been 
moving almost at a snail's pace. This presented a new headache for many, with 
probably the biggest issue being wet corn.

   The USDA reported that as of Nov. 3, corn harvest reached 52% and still 10 
days behind average. Minnesota, Iowa and Kansas did see some progress for that 
week, but North Dakota was only at 10% done, three weeks behind average and the 
least amount harvested for this date in 2009.

   Many farmers have been storing this year's harvest in their on-farm bins, 
likely after having to dry it down. But many university extension offices are 
reminding farmers not to ignore the corn after binning and to be sure to keep 
it cool. "A good rule of thumb is to cool grain any time the average air 
temperature is around 20 degrees Fahrenheit (F) cooler than the grain 
temperature. Repeat this cooling cycle until the grain temperature is 30 to 40 
degrees F for winter storage. This storage temperature minimizes insect 
activity and mold growth in the stored grain. Cooling grain below 30 degrees F 
has little added benefit and can cause ice to form in the grain. Air humidity 
makes little difference when cooling grain," Kristina TeBockhorst and Shawn 
Shouse of Iowa State University said in a Nov. 4 blog published by the 
University of Minnesota Extension.

   The blog noted that the hours required for cooling the whole bin can be 
estimated as 15 divided by the cubic feet per minute of airflow per bushel of 
grain in the bin (cfm/bu). If you don't know how much airflow per bushel your 
fan provides, you can estimate it using the calculator provided by the 
University of Minnesota at this link: https://bbefans.cfans.umn.edu/

   "The key at-harvest activities are cooling as fast as possible and drying as 
rapidly as drying systems will allow," noted a Nov. 4 blog from the University 
of Minnesota Extension.

   HAULING WET CORN CAN BE COSTLY

   Many farmers don't have the room to store their corn on farm and will need 
to haul it to their local elevator for drying, which will add costs to the 
farmer and lower their final price for their corn. See Iowa State Extension's 
article "Corn Drying and Shrink Comparison" at 
https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a2-32.html

   However, some elevators have extended their wet corn allowance in order to 
get farmers to bring new crop bushels to them. The norm for the start of drying 
charges is that corn sold via contract is 15.1% and higher, but corn sold for 
storage is at 14.1% or higher. To give you an idea of the added cost to a 
farmer, here is a typical drying discount schedule, this one from Beardsley 
Farmers Elevator Company, Beardsley Minnesota: 
http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.agricharts.com/sites/1530/discounts/CornDiscounts2
019.pdf

   Archer Daniels Midland Company waived grain drying charges below 19% at 
three of its processing locations to keep their plants running. In a statement 
provided to Brownfield News on Nov. 8, ADM said they are not charging farmers 
to dry corn unless it is above 19% moisture at their corn-wet mills in Cedar 
Rapids and Clinton, Iowa, and Decatur, Illinois. 

   However, wet corn will need to be handled differently by processors. When I 
was a corn buyer at an ethanol plant in Wisconsin, we only took wet corn to 
17.5% moisture if we were desperate for corn to grind. We put wet corn in the 
"day" bin so the corn didn't sit around for long and was used immediately. When 
the corn is above 16.5%, the hammer mills (they grind the incoming corn) can 
gum up and the plant manager is quick to make a call to the corn buyer noting 
the mess that was made. On top of that, wet corn can contaminate a bin if it 
makes it to the larger storage bin, so it needs to be used right away.

   While some farmers will leave their corn in the field over the winter, 
especially if space is tight and the corn is wet, there are considerations that 
need to be weighed when doing so. North Dakota State University Extension 
Service grain drying expert Ken Hellevang noted to make sure corn stalks and 
cob shanks are strong if considering leaving high-moisture corn in the field 
over winter. "Field losses can range from minor to severe. Compare the cost of 
drying versus losses associated with leaving the corn in the field. In 
addition, standing corn tends to slow soil drying in the spring, which may 
delay planting."

   The biggest problem now facing Midwest farmers is a propane shortage related 
mostly to logistics issues, causing a lack of physical supply in some parts of 
the Midwest. Much of the shortages have been seen in Iowa and Minnesota, but a 
farmer from western Illinois said on social media Nov. 9 that his local co-op 
officially decided not to haul any more propane to grain dryers for the time 
being.

   So, the headaches continue.

   For the latest update on propane shortages in parts of the Midwest by DTN 
Staff Reporter Todd Neeley, see: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2019/11/07/propane-demand-
outstripping-pipeline

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn 

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was slightly higher at $141 per 
ton for the week ended Nov. 7. 

   Prices are mixed from various sellers again this week, but the weakness in 
the cash corn price due to lower futures this past week is starting to put some 
pressure on prices. As the cold weather season has come earlier this year, 
feeders will be coming to the market for more product and DDG prices will need 
to remain competitive.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Nov. 7 was at 105.21%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 46.13%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.43. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council noted: "Following 
last week's gains barge CIF (cost, insurance and freight paid by seller) NOLA 
(New Orleans, Louisiana) prices and FOB (free on board means buyer pays costs 
of ocean freight, insurance, unloading, and transportation from originating 
port) Gulf offers were slightly lower. Other quoted routes, including U.S. rail 
rates, are unchanged. Merchandisers report that inquiries and bids from 
Southeast Asia are continuing to firm but the bid/ask spread remains wide. The 
average prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia is up $1 per metric ton 
(mt) to $240 per mt after increases were noted for shipments to Malaysia and 
Vietnam."

   The U.S. Census Bureau reported this past week that U.S. exports of DDGS 
totaled 1,045,775 mt in September, down from 1,117,501 mt in August, but up 2% 
from a year ago. Mexico was the top destination in September, taking 13% U.S. 
exports, followed by Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea and Japan. In the first nine 
months of 2019, U.S. exports of distillers grains are down 6% versus one year 
ago.


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION          CURRENT        PREVIOUS     CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                           11/7/2019      10/31/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri                 Dry       $153           $153         $0
                                    Wet       $77            $77          $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri Subject         Dry       $150           $150         $0
                                    Wet       $77            $77          $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           North Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           New York                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $125           $125         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                   Dry       $148           $148         $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                  Dry       $150           $145         $5
           Iowa                     Dry       $137           $140        -$3
           Michigan                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $137        -$2
           Missouri                 Dry       $155           $148         $7
           Ohio                     Dry       $150           $150         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $145           $148        -$3
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                   Dry       $142           $142         $0
                                    Wet       $55            $55          $0
           Illinois                 Dry       $150           $147         $3
           Nebraska                 Dry       $142           $135         $7
                                    Wet       $45            $45          $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois                 Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $140           $140         $0
           New York                 Dry       $165           $165         $0
           North Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Wisconsin                Dry       $135           $135         $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas
           Indiana                  Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           California               Dry       $205           $205         $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California               Dry       $211           $211         $0
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                     $141           $140         $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.


   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn      11/7/2019   $3.7525      $134.02
                             Soybean Meal      11/7/2019   $305.60
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price        $141.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   11/7       10/31
                                                    Corn   105.21%      100.51%
                                            Soybean Meal    46.13%       45.99%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $5.22        $5.19
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.43        $6.41
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Corn Futures: A Look at Bullish, Bearish Influences

   As we are in the midst of one of the most challenging planting, growing and 
harvesting years on record, and as we grapple with newly revamped trade deals, 
I wanted to take a new look at the corn market. 

   While many farmers and grain analysts have, throughout 2019, postulated on 
the potential for a sharp decline in corn yield, production and acreage, USDA 
has surprised us with not-so-disastrous numbers on each successive report; 
we'll find out in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 
(WASDE) on Friday, Nov. 8, if that changes. But following heavy snows and too 
much rain in parts of the Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains -- and recent 
freeze events on a crop that has lagged badly in maturity -- perhaps the true 
effect will not be completely realized until the final crop numbers are 
revealed in January. 

   With December corn futures now sitting just 23 cents per bushel above the 
contract low -- 98 cents under the June high -- where is this market going and 
what are the factors driving it? 

   Here is a look at some, but certainly not all, of the bullish and bearish 
ingredients that may influence corn trade.

   BULLISH

   -- Managed funds, as we approach the Nov. 8 WASDE report, are estimated to 
still carry a net short of close to 165,000 contracts or 825 million bushels 
(mb). 

   -- The third slowest U.S. corn harvest on record could lead to surprising 
declines in yield, production and acreage, as frequent snow, rain, high winds 
and freezes may have negatively affected corn, especially in the Northern 
Plains. 

   -- USDA will revise both North Dakota and Minnesota acreage downward in the 
Nov. 8 report.

   -- The U.S. corn basis, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt, is the 
strongest in years. Farmer selling has been lighter than usual with on-farm 
storage more than adequate. (Short-term bullish only.)  

   -- The recent trade deal with Japan, along with the prospect of a new USMCA 
trade pact (expected by Thanksgiving) with Canada and Mexico, could increase 
export quantities of corn or byproducts to these countries.

   -- The new U.S.-China trade agreement may be signed by late November and 
could possibly include China sorghum, ethanol and DDG imports in addition to 
corn imports. China's feed grain supplies are supposedly very tight.

   -- Until recently, Brazil has been very dry on a historical basis in 
September and October 2019, but rains appear to be picking up for November. 
Failure to get the normal rainy season, as planting has been delayed, may lead 
to lower second crop corn (safrinha) acres. 

   -- World corn carryout for 2019-20 is expected to fall to the lowest level 
in five years at 299.5 million metric tons (mmt), according to the average 
trade estimate. This compares to 324 mmt in 2018-19 and 341.3 mmt in 2017-18. 

   -- Although Brazilian corn production is pegged at a hefty 103 mmt for this 
coming year, Argentine corn acreage is expected to decline 6% and production to 
fall to 46.5 mmt, down 3.5 mmt. Argentina potentially faces much higher grain 
export taxes under their new president.

   -- The November to the final U.S. corn production numbers has seen a decline 
in five of the past six years. If November corn production is lower, as many 
expect, then we can assume January will also be lower, as freeze, wind, snow 
damage and abandonment becomes more quantifiable. 

   -- The Dow Jones' survey of analysts suggests both corn yield, production 
and acreage on the Nov. 8 WASDE will be lower. Corn yield is estimated at down 
1.1 bushels per acre (bpa), with harvested acreage falling by 500,000 and 
production dropping by 177 mb. 

   -- In their recent baseline projections, USDA projects a sharp rise in feed 
and residual use as meat exports are predicted to rise and the number of 
animals on feed remains large. 

   BEARISH

   -- U.S. corn demand is the slowest since 2012, with export sales running 47% 
behind last year, and export inspections down over 62% from a year ago. 

   -- USDA can be expected to drop exports by 100 mb in November and ethanol 
usage by 25 mb on weak demand, further adding to ending stocks.

   -- U.S. ending stocks of corn, currently pegged at 1.929 billion bushels 
(bb) for 2019-20 could rise close 2.1 bb if the above cuts happen and yield and 
production doesn't decline.

   -- USDA's baseline numbers for 2020-21 suggest acreage will increase by 4.5 
million acres (ma) to 94.5 ma. With a yield of 178.5 bpa, ending stocks could 
go to a burdensome 2.754 bb next season, even with an increase of close to 600 
mb in feed/residual use and exports. Other private acreage estimates are close 
to 96 ma. 

   -- Brazil looks to raise a large crop estimated to be 103 mmt, while Ukraine 
had a record large corn crop of 36 mmt.

   -- Ethanol margins beyond November are called at breakeven or worse, 
suggesting lower corn usage.

   -- There is potential for large pockets of feed grade wheat to compete 
domestically with U.S. corn demand.

   -- Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine are expected to continue to provide very 
stiff competition into 2019, unless, with respect to Argentina, export taxes 
are increased. Those three countries in 2019-20 will export an estimated 97.5 
mmt compared to U.S. at just 48.3 mmt. Compare that to 2017-18 when those three 
exported just 64 mmt versus 62 mmt from the U.S. 

   CONCLUSION

   These are a few of the factors that may go into corn futures prices in the 
weeks ahead. Mother Nature, macroeconomic forces and currency gyrations are 
tough to predict, and they can all affect corn prices. While corn stocks are 
certainly moving in the right direction -- with the lowest world stocks in five 
years -- the U.S., South America and the Black Sea are still awash in corn. In 
the U.S. (if the USDA baseline projections are to be believed,) it would appear 
that -- given good weather -- we will have plentiful supplies for 2020-21 and 
years to come. The rise in corn acreage for 2020-21 is a given following the 
prevented plantings and abandoned acreage of 2019. 

   As burdensome as supplies look to be next year and beyond, it is demand that 
may continue to be a real challenge for U.S. corn. South American and Black Sea 
farmers and exporters continue to ramp up crop production and infrastructure to 
export those crops, as their percentage of world exports continues in an upward 
trajectory.

   While we await the WASDE report on Nov. 8, it may be prudent to set a plan 
to market some corn -- both remaining old crop and new crop -- in the event of 
a bullish report. Granted, the report could be bullish and the potential for a 
new U.S.-China and USMCA trade deal could be supportive to corn, but the 
current demand pace suggests USDA is far overstating U.S. export demand. 

   With the prospect for a huge acreage increase in 2020-21 and a monstrous 
ending stocks number (with good weather), there is little for corn bulls to get 
excited about. A rally to $4.00 to $4.10 on old- or new-crop December futures 
could warrant some aggressive sales. 

   **

   Comments above are for educational purposes and are not meant to be specific 
trade recommendations. The buying and selling of grains and grain futures 
involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

   Dana Mantini can be reached at dana.mantini@dtn.com   

   Follow Dana Mantini on Twitter @mantini_r 

******************************************************************************
A Sunflower Surprise on the Horizon? 

   There's an old market adage that says, "There is always a bull market 
somewhere." Corn, soybean and wheat bulls have had opportunities during the 
2019-20 marketing year, and some of that story is still being written as 
harvest continues to plod along across the Midwest. One market that hasn't 
gotten a lot of attention until combines began to roll, however, is the 
sunflower market. 

   For obvious reasons, the sunflower market doesn't garner the interest other 
grain and oilseed markets do given the largest number of planted acres over the 
last 10 years was 2 million. The sunflower market is taking on added importance 
this year given the tightening U.S. and global vegetable oil markets, as some 
DTN authors have written about recently.

   South and North Dakota rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in sunflower 
production in the United States. It is no secret to anyone that these two 
states were inundated with rain throughout the summer growing season with both 
running 150% to 600% above normal precipitation over the last 90 days. Unlike 
corn and soybean crops, sunflower crops do not need near the amount of moisture 
as their row-crop brethren to produce bumper yields. As producers know all too 
well, excess moisture can be a large hindrance to yield in the way of disease 
pressure. Producers in the Dakotas are seeing that play out this year with 
anecdotal reports from both Dakotas suggesting yields are down anywhere from 
15% to 50% versus a year ago. 

   Based on the last production estimates from USDA, the national average 
sunflower yield in the United States was expected to be 1,722 pounds per acre 
(ppa), which would be down from last year's record-tying yield of 1,731 ppa, 
but still the second highest in history. That percentage change would be down 
half of 1%. Total sunflower supplies of 2.748 billion pounds are expected to be 
essentially flat from a year ago. 

   Assuming USDA is close on their ideas for demand at 2.492 billion pounds, 
this would produce a carryout of 253.4 million pounds. If accurate, this would 
be the smallest carryout since 2014-15. The projected stocks-to-use ratio at 
current estimates of 10.17% would be the smallest since 2013-14. The USDA 
assumptions are based on yield ideas that clearly look elevated at this 
juncture, not to mention harvested acreage, which could prove optimistic given 
the soggy field conditions in the Northern Plains. 

   If the national average yield is reduced even 10%, which would seem 
conservative based on reports from producers, projected carryout would be 
reduced to just 20.2 million pounds versus 286.5 million pounds a year ago. If 
we plug in the lowest yield of the last 10 years, which would be 1,383 ppa from 
2013-14, and down 20% from last year, carryout goes negative by 189.6 million 
pounds if demand is left unchanged. Obviously, demand will not remain static, 
but it helps illustrate the degree to which rationing could be necessary in 
2020.

   If the U.S. situation weren't enough on its own, the global sunflower 
balance sheet offers its own compelling argument for higher prices. Using 
USDA's latest estimates, global sunflower production is expected to be the 
second largest on record at 51.381 million metric tons (mmt), or 113.2 billion 
pounds, just behind 2018-19's record number of 51.417 mmt (113.3 billion 
pounds). 

   Total supplies in 2019-20 are essentially flat from last year's record while 
demand is expected to rise to 54.055 mmt (119.1 billion pounds), a new record. 
Carryout is projected at 2.450 mmt (5.399 billion pounds), which would be the 
tightest since 2010-11. The projected stocks-to-use ratio of 4.53% is seen as 
the tightest since 1997-98. All of the aforementioned assumptions are obviously 
before making any changes to the U.S. To be fair, the U.S. ranks 10th in global 
sunflower production with Ukraine, Russia and the European Union ranking first 
through third, respectively. 

   As noted above, a tight sunflower market takes on added importance in a year 
with a tightening global vegetable oil market. Combining supplies of coconut 
oil, cottonseed oil, olive oil, palm oil, palm kernel oil, rapeseed oil, 
soybean oil and sunflower oil yields, the largest total supplies on record sit 
at 313.4 mmt. Combined demand for these individual markets is estimated by USDA 
at 293.8 mmt, also a new record, and providing a carryout of 19.659 mmt. 
Assuming this to be accurate, carryout would be the smallest since 2010-11. The 
estimated stocks-to-use ratio of 6.69% would be the tightest since 1976-77. 

   With general market expectations that the soybean supply situation could 
tighten further before the end of the 2019-20 marketing year, the global 
vegetable oil outlook could get even more constructive. The largest vegetable 
oil markets in the world are palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, 
respectively. When just these three markets are isolated, the trends remain the 
same with the smallest carryout since 2010-11 and the tightest stocks-to-use 
ratio since 1976-77.

   Based on the latest crop progress data from USDA, sunflower harvest 
nationally was estimated at 31% complete as of Nov. 3, which is the slowest 
since 2013 but above 2009's record-slow harvest progress of 15% at this time. 
Over two-thirds of the U.S. crop is yet to be harvested, but if early yields 
are an overall indicator of this year's sunflower crop, much tighter supplies 
look like a certainty in 2019-20. With an abundance of prevented planting acres 
in the Dakotas this growing season and wet conditions pointing toward another 
year of prevented planting in 2020, sunflowers may need to send a strong price 
signal next spring to ensure producers do not opt for other crops.

   Tregg Cronin can be reached at tmcronin31@gmail.com 

   Follow Tregg Cronin on Twitter @5thWave_tcronin

******************************************************************************
Change to Hours of Service Comment Period Ends With Mixed Feelings

   The U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Motor Carrier Safety 
Administration hours of service rule has been in the news for several years as 
the agency tries to fine-tune the rule in hopes of easing some restrictions for 
the trucking industry. Meanwhile, safety groups continue to fight any changes 
to the rule.

   Recently, a public comment period on proposed changes to the hours of 
service rule ended. The thousands of comments that were submitted show the 
agency has a difficult task ahead of it in weighing the pros and cons of its 
proposed changes before it reaches a final decision. 

   First adopted in 1937, FMCSA's hours of service (HOS) rules specify the 
permitted operating hours of commercial motor vehicle drivers (CMV). In 2018, 
FMCSA authored an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM) to receive 
public comment on portions of the HOS rules to "alleviate unnecessary burdens 
placed on drivers while maintaining safety on our nation's highways and roads," 
the FMCSA noted on their website. In response, the agency received more than 
5,200 public comments.

   Then, on Aug. 14, 2019, the agency issued another ANPRM based on the 
detailed public comments. FMCSA's proposed rule on hours of service offers the 
following five key revisions to the existing HOS rules.

   1. Increase safety and flexibility for the 30-minute-break rule by tying the 
break requirement to 8 hours of driving time without an interruption for at 
least 30 minutes, and allowing the break to be satisfied by a driver using on 
duty, not driving status, rather than off duty. 

   2. Modify the sleeper-berth exception to allow drivers to split their 
required 10 hours off duty into two periods: one period of at least seven 
consecutive hours in the sleeper berth and the other period of not less than 
two consecutive hours, either off duty or in the sleeper berth. Neither period 
would count against the driver's 14hour driving window.

   3. Allow one off-duty break of at least 30 minutes, but not more than 3 
hours, that would pause a truck driver's 14-hour driving window, provided the 
driver takes 10 consecutive hours off-duty at the end of the work shift.

   4. Modify the adverse driving conditions exception by extending by 2 hours 
the maximum window during which driving is permitted.

   5. Change the short-haul exception available to certain commercial drivers 
by lengthening the drivers' maximum onduty period from 12 to 14 hours and 
extending the distance limit within which the driver may operate from 100 air 
miles to 150 air miles.

   The agency then offered a 45-day comment period on the proposed rule 
changes. The comment period ended on Oct. 21, after a 14-day extension to the 
original end date, with over 2,600 comments received. 

   FMCSA said on its website that the proposal "is crafted to improve safety on 
the nation's roadways. The proposed rule would not increase driving time and 
would continue to prevent CMV operators from driving for more than 8 
consecutive hours without at least a 30-minute change in duty status."

   VARIOUS GROUPS WEIGH IN

   The American Trucking Association, in a news release on Aug. 14, "hailed" 
the proposed changes to the hours of service rules as a way to improve safety 
while providing additional flexibility for professional drivers.

   "(Transportation) Secretary (Elaine) Chao and (FMCSA) Administrator (Ray) 
Martinez are to be commended for their commitment to an open and data-driven 
process to update the hours-of-service rules," ATA President and CEO Chris 
Spear stated in the news release. "We look forward to studying and 
understanding how these proposed changes will impact our industry so we can 
provide relevant data and information to strengthen and support a good final 
rule that bolsters safety and provides drivers needed flexibility."

   Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) President Todd 
Spencer said in a news release, "Truck drivers are more regulated and more 
compliant than ever, but crashes keep going up. FMCSA's proposal is the best 
chance of reversing that trend and now is a critical time for drivers to submit 
comments on how flexibility would improve their ability to operate safely." 

   OOIDA emphasized in comments on the rule that in order for new changes to 
have the most safety benefits, drivers should have sole discretion about how 
and when to use the proposed provisions. Here is a link to the entire news 
release, including the group's positions on the provisions in the proposal and 
recommendations to make further improvements: 
https://www.ooida.com/MediaCenter/PressReleases/pressrelease.asp?prid=519

   The Truck Safety Coalition (TSC), a partnership between the Citizens for 
Reliable and Safe Highways (CRASH) Foundation and Parents Against Tired 
Truckers (PATT), opposed the FNCSA proposal, claiming it would "drastically 
weaken" the HOS rules. The TSC said in a news release on Aug. 14 that the FMCSA 
claim that the proposed changes provide "greater flexibility for drivers 
subject to the HOS rules without adversely affecting safety" is a departure 
from reality as well as the agency's main mission of improving truck safety. 
"The FMCSA's proposed changes to the HOS rules for truck drivers will not 
improve safety," said the TSC.

   "Instead of moving forward on these rollbacks, the agency must produce 
compelling data to demonstrate that these changes will not lead to more health 
problems for truck drivers, more coercion of truck drivers, and more crashes 
involving trucks drivers operating while fatigued," said the TSC.

   "The agency is offering flexibility without regard for the fact that it 
could be exploited by the worst actors in the industry, including drivers who 
will operate while fatigued and motor carriers who will coerce them to do so. 
The FMCSA should immediately rescind these proposed changes and focus their 
time, resources, and efforts on advancing proven safety solutions such as speed 
limiters and automatic emergency braking," added the TSC. Here is a link to 
their original comments on the 2018 ANPRM: 
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=FMCSA-2018-0248-5191

   AGRICULTURE HAULERS HOPE FOR CHANGE

   Currently, during harvest and planting season as determined by each state, 
drivers who transport agricultural commodities, including livestock, are exempt 
from the HOS requirements from the source of the commodities to a location 
within a 150-air-mile radius from the source, the FSMCA noted on its website.

   During the first few days of November, the governors of both Minnesota and 
North Dakota issued executive orders granting a waiver of HOS requirements for 
drivers of commercial vehicles transporting propane, gasoline and diesel fuel 
to retail suppliers.

   Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said the exemption was being granted "due to a wet 
spring, followed by a cold and wet fall, the corn and soybean harvest has been 
significantly delayed. Farmers in Minnesota and neighboring states have been 
impacted by the rain and the early onset of cold weather which will result in 
harvest activities happening simultaneously throughout the region."

   Livestock carriers received an extension from current HOS rules until 
September 2018, which was then renewed for one year. On Oct. 30, the 
Responsible and Efficient Agriculture Destination (TREAD) Act was introduced in 
the House by U.S. Reps. Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., to 
provide flexibility and relief from HOS rules for agricultural haulers, 
allowing agriculture haulers within a short driving distance to finish their 
route while transporting animals, live insects and perishable goods.

   "Agriculture haulers often travel on rural, unpaved roads with low-speed 
limits and run out of Hours of Service while only being a short distance from 
where they need to go," according to a news release on Craig's website. "This 
bipartisan bill would make it possible for drivers hauling live animals and 
perishable goods to finish their routes if they are within 150 air miles of 
their destination. The bill additionally allows this exemption to be utilized 
year-round rather than only during harvesting seasons." 

   More than 20 ag groups, including the National Grain and Feed Association 
(NGFA), the American Soybean Association (ASA), the National Farmers Union 
(NFU), the National Milk Producers (NMP), the American Beekeeping Federation 
(ABF) and the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) support the Tread 
Act. 

   Here is a link to the news release noting all the organizations that support 
of TREAD: 
https://craig.house.gov/media/press-releases/reps-craig-and-smucker-introduce-bi
partisan-bill-providing-regulatory-relief

   NCBA President Jennifer Houston said in an Oct. 30 news release, 
"Agricultural haulers -- and especially livestock haulers -- face very unique 
challenges that haulers in other industries don't face, and this bill 
recognizes that need. On behalf of America's cattle producers, I want to thank 
Representatives Craig, Smucker, and all the other original co-sponsors for 
their leadership on this issue and working towards needed flexibility within 
Hours of Service for our livestock haulers."

   There has been no firm decision yet by the FMCSA on the proposals for its 
HOS rules for ag haulers or the trucking industry as a whole. And Ray Martinez, 
who was administrator of FMCSA for a little over 18 months, left the agency on 
Oct. 28. Jim Mullen, currently FMCSA chief counsel, will serve as interim 
administrator of the agency until President Donald Trump nominates a 
replacement who must then be confirmed by the Senate.

   Because of the change in guard at the agency and the thousands of comments 
recently received on the latest notice of proposed rulemaking, many in the 
industry feel we may not see a final decision on the hours of service rule 
until sometime in 2020. The agency will once again need to weigh the pros and 
cons of the proposal, which will not be an easy task.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Steady

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was steady at $140 per ton for 
the week ended Oct. 31. 

   Prices are mixed from various sellers again this week, but the higher corn 
basis and the delay to harvest is supporting the market in some states.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 31 was at 100.51%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 45.99%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.19, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.41. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council noted that higher 
CIF (cost, insurance and freight paid by the seller) NOLA (New Orleans, 
Louisiana) prices have paved the way for gains in the Chicago market as well as 
East Coast export offers. 

   "FOB (free on board -- the buyer pays for transportation of the goods) NOLA 
values are up $9 per metric ton (mt) this week for November shipment, sparking 
a $3/mt rise in values for spot Barge CIF NOLA product. The recent winter storm 
across the Plains and Midwest is reported to be partly responsible for the 
$16/mt increase in DDGS rail-delivered to the Pacific Northwest.

   "Internationally, exporters note Indonesia has been actively securing U.S. 
product, and while Vietnamese purchases have been quiet, the bid/ask spread has 
narrowed considerably this week. Rates for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia 
are up $2/mt from last week for November shipment."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION           CURRENT       PREVIOUS     CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                           10/31/2019     10/24/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri                 Dry       $153           $150         $3
                                    Wet        $77            $75         $2
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri Subject         Dry       $150           $147         $3
                                    Wet        $77            $55        $22
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           North Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           New York                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $125           $125         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                   Dry       $148           $145         $3
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                  Dry       $145           $140         $5
           Iowa                     Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $137           $137         $0
           Missouri                 Dry       $148           $143         $5
           Ohio                     Dry       $150           $145         $5
           South Dakota             Dry       $148           $150        -$2
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                   Dry       $142           $142         $0
                                    Wet        $55            $55         $0
           Illinois                 Dry       $147           $147         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
                                    Wet        $45            $45         $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois                 Dry       $140           $145        -$5
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $145        -$5
           Iowa                     Dry       $135           $140        -$5
           Michigan                 Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $140           $140         $0
           New York                 Dry       $165           $170        -$5
           North Dakota             Dry       $135           $140        -$5
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $150        -$5
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Wisconsin                Dry       $135           $135         $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas
           Indiana                  Dry       $136           $136         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           California               Dry       $205           $205         $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California               Dry       $211           $211         $0
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                     $140           $140         $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn     10/31/2019   $3.9000      $139.29
                             Soybean Meal     10/31/2019   $304.40
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price        $140.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   10/31      10/24
                                                    Corn   100.51%      101.36%
                                            Soybean Meal    45.99%       45.81%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $5.19        $5.19
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.41        $6.43
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Soybean Basis Climbs Out of Cellar

It has been over two years since there has been anything positive to say about 
soybean basis. The past two end-of-year stories I wrote were depressing to say 
the least when it came to talking about how the DTN national average basis 
performed. The 2016-17 DTN average basis earned the title of "bottom feeder," 
barely beating out the 2017-18 and 2018-19 crop year basis.   The common 
denominator for the past two crop years has been the lack of China business, as 
the trade war dragged on and on. At the end of the 2017-18 crop year, soybean 
basis hit near rock bottom. When the trade war started in mid-June 2018, 
shuttle basis for soybeans delivered to the Pacific Northwest (PNW) immediately 
disappeared. Since the majority of soybean exports to China go off the PNW, the 
trade war shut those exports off, and in turn left farmers in North Dakota, 
South Dakota and western Minnesota with no export market for their soybeans 
except to the Gulf.

   For the 2018-19 crop year, soybean basis was just as pathetic, as the trade 
war woes spilled into the new-crop year. The Gulf soybean market became 
overwhelmed and basis weakened to that market as well. On top of that, 
logistics turned into a complete nightmare as flooding overwhelmed the entire 
Mississippi River system, starting at the Gulf in January 2019 and overtaking 
the entire system through June. The flooding caused major closures of locks and 
dams and shut down the St. Louis Harbor numerous times, stopping all barge 
traffic. 

   There was some hope in early August 2019 when USDA announced U.S. soybeans 
sold to China, the first time since late June and the first since the Chinese 
government had offered to exempt five private crushers in the country from the 
25% import tariffs on U.S. beans arriving by the end of 2019. 

   In that same timeframe, when basis was looking up on the PNW, President 
Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he would impose a new 10% tariff on $300 
billion of Chinese goods, set for Sept. 1, with China's failed promises to buy 
U.S. goods as one of the reasons. That news caused soybean basis on the PNW to 
drop as much as 30 cents, once again causing areas that ship to the PNW to 
weaken basis for their farmers. 

   Local basis in North Dakota suffered from that news and when I checked 
websites of the shuttle loaders in eastern North Dakota at the time, the nearby 
basis bids were $1.30 to $1.35 under the November futures, with new-crop basis 
posted at $1.40 under November futures at the time.

   In three months time, those basis levels climbed higher with the same 
shuttle elevators I had checked before now posting 45 to 52 cents under the 
November futures, another posting 45 to 65 cents under the November futures and 
the others posting $1.00 to $1.10 under the November futures for the balance of 
October into November. In addition, the DTN national average basis this week 
climbed above the minimum five-year average for the first time in the past 
three crop years.

   It's not just the Dakotas who are seeing an improvement in basis. In the 
Midwest, where soybeans were also planted late and faced weather challenges 
during the growing season, new-crop basis is firm. Many elevators are also 
offering incentives, such as free storage, and some are pushing posted basis 
levels with a break on posted drying charges.

   What changed?

   The return of more steady purchases by China has been a boost to soybean 
basis, especially for farmers who rely on the PNW for their bids. But a late 
harvest in the Dakotas and western Minnesota has also had a hand in soybean 
basis' newfound strength.

   In the Oct. 20 crop progress report, National Agricultural Statistics 
Service (NASS) reported soybean condition was rated 4% very poor, 12% poor, 35% 
fair, 46% good and 3% excellent in North Dakota. Soybeans harvest was at 20%, 
well behind 51% last year and the five-year average of 81%. During that week, 
North Dakota farmers harvested just 4% of their beans.

   North Dakota farmers were hit by rains in September and hit again by an 
early season blizzard that covered central and eastern North Dakota with up to 
three feet of snow and extremely strong winds. Bismarck had four straight days 
of measurable snow from Oct. 10 to Oct. 13, double its average for the entire 
month, noted the National Weather Service.

   In South Dakota, NASS said 33% of their beans were harvested versus the 
five-year average of 76%. Central and northeastern South Dakota was also a 
victim of the early October blizzard. In Minnesota, where some snow and rain 
fell in early October, 42% of the beans were harvested versus the five-year 
average of 81%.

   USDA noted the average harvest progress for the 18 reporting states was 46% 
as of Oct. 20, 10 days behind average and the slowest pace for this date since 
2009.

   Beneath all the snow stood the new-crop soybeans, many of them not quite 
fully matured. As the snow melted, many farmers have been unable to get in 
their fields due to mud, and those who tried became stuck. 

   So, now we have this fresh demand for soybeans and many of them have yet to 
be harvested. It is still unclear as to how much of the 2019 crop was lost to 
damage from the blizzard or the freeze that came too soon in other parts of the 
Midwest for the late-planted crop.

   The proof is in the DTN national average soybean basis, which has 
strengthened 12 cents since Oct. 1 when it was 81 cents under the November 
futures; as of Oct. 25 it was 69 cents under. This is new territory for soybean 
basis, which hasn't been this strong for at least three crop years, especially 
at this time of year, which is normally when the end of harvest is nearing.

   Not only did the DTN national average basis climb above the five-year 
minimum average basis (its "home" for the past three years), it surpassed the 
five-year average this past week. Will it reach the five-year maximum average? 
You can follow it every Wednesday when DTN publishes a weekly national average 
soybean basis chart for its customers.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Lower

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was down $1, to $140 per ton for 
the week ended Oct. 24. 

   Prices were mixed from various sellers, with the DDG price this week 
slightly weaker in some states. The cash corn price has been under pressure 
from ongoing harvest activity, but the corn basis remains strong in some areas 
where farmer selling has been slow and plants need to push basis levels to 
procure corn. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 24 was at 101.36%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 45.81%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.19, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.43. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council noted that CIF 
NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) prices are $7 per metric ton (mt) higher this 
week, while FOB Gulf offers are up $2-$3/mt for November/December shipment. 

   "Rates for DDGS delivered via rail to the PNW are $3/mt higher this week," 
the U.S. Grains Council noted. "Merchandisers report active inquiries from 
Southeast Asia, with aggressive purchases from Indonesia and some sales to 
Thailand. Vietnamese inquiries have been active, but bids are lower than 
exporters' firm asking prices. The average price for 40-foot containers to 
Southeast Asia is down $1/mt to $236/mt for November shipment."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION           CURRENT       PREVIOUS     CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                           10/24/2019     10/16/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
                                    Wet        $75            $75         $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri Subject         Dry       $147           $147         $0
                                    Wet        $55            $75        -$20
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois                 Dry       $135           $140        -$5
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           North Dakota             Dry       $135           $130         $5
           New York                 Dry       $150           $150         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $125           $125         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                   Dry       $145           $145         $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                  Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $137           $138        -$1
           Missouri                 Dry       $143           $143         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $150           $150         $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                   Dry       $142           $145        -$3
                                    Wet        $55            $55         $0
           Illinois                 Dry       $147           $147         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
                                    Wet        $45            $45         $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois                 Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Indiana                  Dry       $145           $155        -$10
           Iowa                     Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Michigan                 Dry       $145           $150        -$5
           Minnesota                Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $140           $140         $0
           New York                 Dry       $170           $165         $5
           North Dakota             Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $150           $155        -$5
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Wisconsin                Dry       $135           $135         $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas    (210-345-3362)
           Indiana                  Dry       $136           $136         $0
           Iowa                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           Minnesota                Dry       $140           $140         $0
           Nebraska                 Dry       $135           $135         $0
           Ohio                     Dry       $145           $145         $0
           South Dakota             Dry       $135           $135         $0
           California               Dry       $205           $205         $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California               Dry       $211           $203         $8
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                     $140           $141        -$1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn     10/24/2019   $3.8675      $138.13
                             Soybean Meal     10/24/2019   $305.60
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price        $140.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   10/24      10/16
                                                    Corn   101.36%      100.78%
                                            Soybean Meal    45.81%       46.26%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $5.19        $5.22
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.43        $6.42
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Price Lower on Average 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was down $1, to $141 per ton for 
the week ended Oct. 16. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but overall, 
the DDG price this week came under some pressure from the weaker cash corn 
price. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 16 was at 100.78%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 46.26%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.42. 

   Various closures on the Mississippi River are likely stalling transport of 
some export containers to the Gulf this week. In the Upper Mississippi River, 
Locks 16 and 17 have been closed to northbound and southbound traffic since 
Oct. 13. American Commercial Barge Line noted that the latest forecasts reflect 
Lock 17 will reopen the evening of Oct. 17 and Lock 16 will reopen the morning 
of Oct. 18. Twenty-four hours of transit delays are expected for the cleanup of 
both locks. 

   In the Lower Mississippi there is a closure at Mile 249 as of Oct. 16 
through Oct. 18 from 07:00-17:00 to southbound tows with four or more barges. 
At the Gulf, weather fronts moving through the Gulf and Canal areas this week 
through Oct. 18 will cause intermittent delays there from wind and fog, added 
ACBL.


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION                        CURRENT        PREVIOUS     CHANGE
COMPANY              STATE                               10/16/2019     10/11/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri             Dry                      $150          $150            $0
                     Wet                      $75           $75             $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
                     Missouri Subject     Dry               $147           $147         $0
                                          Wet               $75            $75          $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Subject              Illinois             Dry               $140           $140         $0
Subject              Indiana              Dry               $140           $140         $0
Subject              Iowa                 Dry               $135           $135         $0
Subject              Michigan             Dry               $150           $150         $0
Subject              Minnesota            Dry               $135           $135         $0
Subject              North Dakota         Dry               $130           $130         $0
Subject              New York             Dry               $150           $150         $0
Subject              South Dakota         Dry               $125           $125         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
                     Kansas               Dry               $145           $145         $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
                     Indiana              Dry               $140           $150        -$10
                     Iowa                 Dry               $140           $145         -$5
                     Michigan             Dry               $135           $135         $0
                     Minnesota            Dry               $138           $140         -$2
                     Missouri             Dry               $143           $145         -$2
                     Ohio                 Dry               $145           $155        -$10
                     South Dakota         Dry               $150           $150         $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas               Dry                      $145          $140            $5
                     Wet                      $55           $45            $10
Illinois             Dry                      $147          $147            $0
Nebraska             Dry                      $135          $145           -$10
                     Wet                      $45           $45             $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
                     Illinois             Dry               $145           $145         $0
                     Indiana              Dry               $155           $155         $0
                     Iowa                 Dry               $140           $140         $0
                     Michigan             Dry               $150           $150         $0
                     Minnesota            Dry               $135           $135         $0
                     Nebraska             Dry               $140           $140         $0
                     New York             Dry               $165           $165         $0
                     North Dakota         Dry               $140           $140         $0
                     Ohio                 Dry               $155           $155         $0
                     South Dakota         Dry               $135           $135         $0
                     Wisconsin            Dry               $135           $135         $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas                  (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana              Dry                      $136          $136            $0
Iowa                 Dry                      $145          $135           $10
Minnesota            Dry                      $140          $140            $0
Nebraska             Dry                      $135          $135            $0
Ohio                 Dry                      $145          $145            $0
South Dakota         Dry                      $135          $135            $0
California           Dry                      $205          $200            $5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California           Dry                      $203          $206           -$3
*Prices listed per ton.
                     Weekly Average                         $141           $142         -$1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                       Settlement Price:  Quote Date        Bushel  Short Ton
                                    Corn    10/16/2019     $3.9175     $139.91
                            Soybean Meal    10/16/2019     $304.80
           DDG Weekly Average Spot Price       $141.00
                                DDG Value Relative to:    10/16       10/10
                                                  Corn     100.78%     104.56%
                                          Soybean Meal      46.26%      46.69%
                             Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                   DDG       $5.22       $5.26
                                          Soybean Meal       $6.42       $6.40
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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